Its been a while and I have wanted to write about this. Gartner releases a pretty useful 'something' called a hype cycle every year. At a very broad level, this 'something' (see figure) gives an idea about the current and probable future adoption of technologies by enthusiasts.

The stages in a hype cycle are pretty much self explanatory , so I shan't delve into the details. Some basics that you should know before you look at the hype cycle

When should you invest in a product/technology - Ideally when its in the first stage because then you are making a strategic long term investment. You may also invest when the product reaches the peak of expectations - Blue Ocean Strategies employed in the customization of the product/technology to suit a target market earns you a lot of moolah at this stage.

When should you not invest in a product suite/technology? - When it on the downslope/downspiral.

Of course, my statements are with the assumption that the Hype Cycle is a reliable reference measure (by far it is but what the heck)

Now, I take your attention to the figure attached with this post. Its quite intriguing.
- Microblogging (read Twitter) is on the down spiral. I refuse to believe that Twitter shall stop meeting expectations and infusing enthusiasm among its users. Yes, I sure have experienced a feeling of , 'Whats new' when i tweet sometimes but then I convince myself thinking am yet to use 'all' capabilities of twitter to reach new ends.

- Cloud Computing, not surprisingly is at the peak of inflated expectations. The vast number of vistas that PaaS, IaaS have opened up and shall continue to do so at an enterprise level are unimaginable. It is going to be a field day for retail customers as many of the enteprise retail service providers are mulling on various VAS options related to cloud computing services.

- E-Book Readers : I am surprised/shocked to find this here. I am thinking about Barnes and Nobles strategy in the light of this info. Did they release Nook at a time when they could rake it in majorly? The Nook is not hugely different from the Kindle;cheaper,it is, yes. Amazon Kindle, for me, continues to be a much-desired acquisition. What about the iPAD? Yes, it does a lot more than allow you just to read e-books and e-content but broadly, if E-readers are at the peak of inflated expectations, will the iPAD fail to meet expectations in the near future?

- The slope of enlightenment and plateau of productivity are pretty predictable and resonating. Wikis, web2.0 and enterprise 2.0 features have already started being used for utility purposes.

- RFID at the nadir of the slope is also pretty much an expected phenomenon.

- Moving to the most interesting part of the curve -- the technology trigger. Surface computers, behavioural economics, Video Search, and Internet TV have caught my attention big time. Behavioural economics has already started manifesting itself in many things that we see around us. Video Search through tagging/metadata is the next 'most needed' thing. Youtube (Online Video), if you check has already passed the trough of disillusionment. Video Searching is probably going to add that bit of value to it and make surfing/searching on youtube a value-proposition. One aspect/technology i missed here is the Semantic Web. I remember having seen Semantic Web in the Gartner Hype Cycle of 2005. I refuse to believe that it might be on a down spiral now.

We are yet to see a tangible use to search engines/concepts such as Wolfram Alpha.

Do keep a tab on the first part of the curve - the technology trigger. These are the names you would be hearing a lot in the next half, or maybe , (judging by the pace at which technology is catching up, ) in the next quarter itself.

Maybe, Gartner should change its policy now, hype cycles at shorter intervals than at an annual frequency?